Dainava vs Babrungas Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.67 expected goals for Dainava and 1.15 for Babrungas, a combined total of 1.82. That distribution gives Babrungas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 27% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Babrungas win

47.4% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.67 – 1.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Dainava home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Babrungas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 21% / 31% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.67 goals for Dainava and 1.15 for Babrungas, a combined 1.82 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 27% and both teams to score at 33%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 19%.

Match result (1X2)

Dainava win21%

Draw31%

Babrungas win47%

Double chance 1X

53%

Double chance 12

69%

Double chance X2

79%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals54%

Over 2.5 goals27%

Over 3.5 goals11%

Both teams to score33%

Correct score

0–118.7%
0–016.3%
1–112.5%
1–010.8%
0–210.8%

Recent form

Dainava

2026-09-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Minija · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Žalgiris II · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Atmosfera · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · H vs BFA · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Babrungas · 2-1 (W)

Babrungas

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1 Lyga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Minija	25	22	1	2	55	67
2	Babrungas	25	19	4	2	32	61
3	Be1 NFA	24	16	2	6	18	50
4	Neptūną Klaipėda	25	14	2	9	3	44
5	Tauras	25	13	4	8	12	43
6	Žalgiris II	25	13	4	8	6	43
7	BFA	25	13	4	8	4	43
8	Dainava	25	11	7	7	10	40
9	Atmosfera	24	8	6	10	4	30
10	Jonava	25	7	6	12	-5	27
11	Garliava	25	7	4	14	-2	25
12	Kauno Žalgiris II	25	7	1	17	-20	22
13	Hegelmann II	25	7	1	17	-26	22
14	Transinvest 2	25	6	3	16	-29	21
15	FA Šiauliai II	25	4	5	16	-29	17
16	Ekranas	25	4	2	19	-33	14

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Babrungas win, at 47.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 27%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.