Dainava vs Neptūną Klaipėda Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Dainava and 0.88 for Neptūną Klaipėda, a combined total of 2.31. That distribution gives Dainava the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Dainava win

50.0% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.43 – 0.88

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Dainava home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dainava to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 27% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.43 goals for Dainava and 0.88 for Neptūną Klaipėda, a combined 2.31 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 41% and both teams to score at 45%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.

Match result (1X2)

Dainava win50%

Draw27%

Neptūną Klaipėda win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

50%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals67%

Over 2.5 goals41%

Over 3.5 goals20%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

1–014.2%
1–112.5%
2–010.2%
0–09.9%
2–18.9%

Recent form

Dainava

2026-09-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Minija · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Žalgiris II · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Atmosfera · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · H vs BFA · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Babrungas · 2-1 (W)

Neptūną Klaipėda

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1 Lyga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Minija	26	22	1	3	54	67
2	Babrungas	27	21	4	2	35	67
3	Be1 NFA	26	17	3	6	20	54
4	Žalgiris II	27	14	4	9	6	46
5	Tauras	26	13	5	8	12	44
6	Dainava	27	12	8	7	12	44
7	Neptūną Klaipėda	27	14	2	11	0	44
8	BFA	27	13	4	10	0	43
9	Atmosfera	26	9	7	10	5	34
10	Jonava	27	8	6	13	-4	30
11	Garliava	27	8	5	14	-1	29
12	Hegelmann II	27	8	2	17	-25	26
13	Transinvest 2	27	7	4	16	-27	25
14	Kauno Žalgiris II	27	7	2	18	-22	23
15	FA Šiauliai II	27	4	6	17	-30	18
16	Ekranas	27	4	3	20	-35	15

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Dainava win, at 50.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.