· Analysis updated 07:02 UTC
Dakota vs Caiquetio Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Dakota and 1.50 for Caiquetio, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Dakota the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Dakota win
49.3% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Caiquetio away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dakota to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 22% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Dakota and 1.50 for Caiquetio, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 68% and both teams to score at 67%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.1%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–26.8%
- 2–26.8%
- 3–16.0%
Recent form
Dakota
Caiquetio
- 2026-10-26T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-13T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Nacional · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-04T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Unistars · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-25T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Brazil Juniors · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-21T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Estrella · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division di Honor table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dakota win, at 49.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.