Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium · Referee Meng Xiangkun, China · Analysis updated 09:23 UTC
Dalian Zhixing vs Shandong Luneng Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.82 expected goals for Dalian Zhixing and 1.67 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 3.49. That distribution gives Dalian Zhixing the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.3% probability
Expected goals
1.82 – 1.67
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dalian Zhixing home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Shandong Luneng away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dalian Zhixing to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 22% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.82 goals for Dalian Zhixing and 1.67 for Shandong Luneng, a combined 3.49 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.3%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–27.7%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–05.6%
Recent form
Dalian Zhixing
- 2026-09-05T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Qingdao Jonoon · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-01T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Shanghai Shenhua · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Beijing Guoan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Chongqing Tongliang Long · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-19T11:35:00.000Z · A vs SHANGHAI SIPG · 1-1 (D)
Shandong Luneng
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sichuan Jiuniu · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-01T11:35:00.000Z · H vs SHANGHAI SIPG · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-28T11:35:00.000Z · A vs Shanghai Shenhua · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Qingdao Youth Island · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-14T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Qingdao Jonoon · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chengdu Better City | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 52 |
| 2 | Dalian Zhixing | 29 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 49 |
| 3 | Beijing Guoan | 29 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 21 | 47 |
| 4 | Shandong Luneng | 29 | 15 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 44 |
| 5 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 29 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 42 |
| 6 | Yunnan Yukun | 29 | 11 | 7 | 11 | -3 | 40 |
| 7 | Qingdao Youth Island | 29 | 8 | 15 | 6 | -6 | 39 |
| 8 | Shanghai Shenhua | 29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 13 | 37 |
| 9 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 29 | 8 | 12 | 9 | -3 | 36 |
| 10 | Hangzhou Greentown | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | -3 | 34 |
| 11 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 29 | 9 | 5 | 15 | -12 | 32 |
| 12 | Tianjin Teda | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 31 |
| 13 | Shenyang Urban | 29 | 8 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 29 |
| 14 | Henan Jianye | 29 | 8 | 10 | 11 | -4 | 28 |
| 15 | Wuhan Three Towns | 29 | 5 | 12 | 12 | -11 | 22 |
| 16 | Qingdao Jonoon | 29 | 6 | 3 | 20 | -28 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.