Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium · Referee T. Ren · Analysis updated 08:46 UTC
Dalian Zhixing vs Shanghai Shenhua Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Dalian Zhixing and 1.30 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Dalian Zhixing the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.6% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dalian Zhixing home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Shanghai Shenhua away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dalian Zhixing to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 25% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Dalian Zhixing and 1.30 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined 2.88 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–08.9%
- 1–27.5%
- 0–17.3%
Recent form
Dalian Zhixing
- 2026-09-05T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Qingdao Jonoon · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-01T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Shanghai Shenhua · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Beijing Guoan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Chongqing Tongliang Long · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-19T11:35:00.000Z · A vs SHANGHAI SIPG · 1-1 (D)
Shanghai Shenhua
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Zenit · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-17T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Tampines Rovers · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Chongqing Tongliang Long · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-01T11:35:00.000Z · A vs Dalian Zhixing · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Shandong Luneng · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.