Dalian Zhixing vs Tianjin Teda Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Dalian Zhixing and 1.23 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Dalian Zhixing the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

65.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.30 – 1.23

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Dalian Zhixing home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Tianjin Teda away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dalian Zhixing to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 27% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Dalian Zhixing and 1.23 for Tianjin Teda, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Dalian Zhixing win38%

Draw27%

Tianjin Teda win35%

Double chance 1X

65%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals46%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–112.7%
1–010.4%
0–19.8%
2–18.3%
0–08.0%

Recent form

Dalian Zhixing

2026-09-05T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Qingdao Jonoon · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-01T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Shanghai Shenhua · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-28T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Beijing Guoan · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Chongqing Tongliang Long · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-19T11:35:00.000Z · A vs SHANGHAI SIPG · 1-1 (D)

Tianjin Teda

2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Shenyang Urban · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hangzhou Greentown · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Qingdao Youth Island · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-22T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Wuhan Three Towns · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-15T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Beijing Guoan · 2-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Super League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Chengdu Better City	29	15	7	7	16	52
2	Dalian Zhixing	29	15	4	10	3	49
3	Beijing Guoan	29	14	10	5	21	47
4	Shandong Luneng	29	15	5	9	10	44
5	SHANGHAI SIPG	29	13	8	8	14	42
6	Yunnan Yukun	29	11	7	11	-3	40
7	Qingdao Youth Island	29	8	15	6	-6	39
8	Shanghai Shenhua	29	14	5	10	13	37
9	Chongqing Tongliang Long	29	8	12	9	-3	36
10	Hangzhou Greentown	29	11	6	12	-3	34
11	Sichuan Jiuniu	29	9	5	15	-12	32
12	Tianjin Teda	29	11	8	10	4	31
13	Shenyang Urban	29	8	5	16	-11	29
14	Henan Jianye	29	8	10	11	-4	28
15	Wuhan Three Towns	29	5	12	12	-11	22
16	Qingdao Jonoon	29	6	3	20	-28	14

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.