Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium · Referee A. Al Rumaikhani · Analysis updated 15:26 UTC
Damac vs Al Ula Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.50 expected goals for Damac and 1.10 for Al Ula, a combined total of 1.60. That distribution gives Al Ula the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 22% for over 2.5 goals and 26% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Ula win
50.4% probability
Expected goals
0.50 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Damac home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Ula away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Ula to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 17% / 33% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.50 goals for Damac and 1.10 for Al Ula, a combined 1.60 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–122.2%
- 0–020.2%
- 0–212.2%
- 1–111.1%
- 1–010.1%
Recent form
Damac
- 2026-10-12T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Al Najma · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Al-Adalah · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-14T15:50:00.000Z · A vs Al Bukayriyah · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T15:50:00.000Z · H vs Al Ula · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-02T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Al Wehda Club · 2-2 (D)
Al Ula
- 2026-10-08T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Okhdood · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T16:05:00.000Z · H vs Jeddah Club · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T15:50:00.000Z · A vs Damac · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T17:40:00.000Z · H vs Al-Raed · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T15:55:00.000Z · A vs Al Anwar · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-08T15:50:00.000Z · Damac 0-1 Al Ula (Division 1)
Division 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ula | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 18 |
| 2 | Al Zulfi | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Al Jabalain | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Al Wehda Club | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | Al Najma | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Al Anwar | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Al-Raed | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 8 | Al Taee | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 10 |
| 9 | Al-Adalah | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Damac | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 9 |
| 11 | Jeddah Club | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Al Orubah | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 13 | Al Saqer | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Al Okhdood | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 15 | Al Jandal | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 16 | Hajer | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Al Jeel | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 2 |
| 18 | Al Bukayriyah | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Ula win, at 50.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 26% and over 2.5 goals at 22%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.