· Analysis updated 00:33 UTC
Damash Gilanian vs Mes Shahr-e Babak Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.40 expected goals for Damash Gilanian and 0.95 for Mes Shahr-e Babak, a combined total of 1.35. That distribution gives Mes Shahr-e Babak the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 37%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 16% for over 2.5 goals and 20% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 26%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mes Shahr-e Babak win
48.1% probability
Expected goals
0.40 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Damash Gilanian home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mes Shahr-e Babak away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
63%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–025.9%
- 0–124.6%
- 0–211.7%
- 1–010.4%
- 1–19.9%
Recent form
Damash Gilanian
- 2026-07-16T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Fard Alborz · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pars Jonoubi JAM · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-07-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ario Eslamshahr · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-27T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Havadar · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-06-21T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Mes Soongoun · 1-1 (D)
Mes Shahr-e Babak
- 2026-10-08T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Foolad FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Nassaji Mazandaran · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Malavan · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-03T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Fajr Sepasi · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Sanat Naft · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-10T13:30:00.000Z · Damash Gilanian 0-7 Mes Shahr-e Babak (Azadegan League)
- 2025-11-08T11:45:00.000Z · Damash Gilanian 1-2 Mes Shahr-e Babak (Azadegan League)
- 2025-01-30T11:30:00.000Z · Damash Gilanian 1-0 Mes Shahr-e Babak (Azadegan League)
- 2024-09-17T14:45:00.000Z · Damash Gilanian 0-2 Mes Shahr-e Babak (Azadegan League)
- 2024-03-27T15:45:00.000Z · Damash Gilanian 2-1 Mes Shahr-e Babak (Azadegan League)
- 2023-10-20T13:15:00.000Z · Damash Gilanian 2-3 Mes Shahr-e Babak (Azadegan League)
Azadegan League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mes Rafsanjan | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 2 | Pars Jonoubi JAM | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 |
| 3 | Ario Eslamshahr | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 4 | Shenavarsazi Qeshm | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Saipa | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 6 | Naft Masjed Soleyman | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 7 | Fard Alborz | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | Mes Soongoun | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 9 | Be'sat Kermanshah | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Novin Ahvaz | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | Naft Gachsaran | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 12 | Shahin Bandar Ameri | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Naft Bandar Abbas | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 6 |
| 14 | Niroye Zamini | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 15 | Mes Kerman | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 | Havadar | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mes Shahr-e Babak win, at 48.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 20% and over 2.5 goals at 16%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.