Dandenong City vs South Melbourne Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Dandenong City and 1.53 for South Melbourne, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Dandenong City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

63.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.58 – 1.53

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Dandenong City home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
South Melbourne away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dandenong City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 24% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Dandenong City and 1.53 for South Melbourne, a combined 3.10 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Dandenong City win39%

Draw24%

South Melbourne win37%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals60%

Over 3.5 goals38%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

1–110.8%
2–18.5%
1–28.3%
1–07.1%
0–16.9%

Recent form

Dandenong City

2026-08-29T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Oakleigh Cannons · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-22T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Preston Lions · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-14T09:45:00.000Z · H vs Altona Magic · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-01T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Dandenong Thunder · 3-0 (W)
2026-07-24T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Green Gully · 0-0 (D)

South Melbourne

2026-10-23T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Sydney United · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-17T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Sutherland Sharks · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-10T08:35:00.000Z · H vs Melbourne Victory · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-15T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Lions · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-11T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Oakleigh Cannons · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Victoria NPL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Oakleigh Cannons	26	16	6	4	32	54
2	Preston Lions	26	15	6	5	22	51
3	Hume City	26	15	4	7	15	49
4	Avondale	26	15	2	9	31	47
5	South Melbourne	26	13	2	11	3	41
6	Heidelberg United	26	11	7	8	8	40
7	Sunshine Georgies	26	9	11	6	1	38
8	Dandenong City	26	10	7	9	4	37
9	St. Albans Saints	26	9	7	10	-7	34
10	Melbourne City II	26	8	6	12	0	30
11	Altona Magic	26	7	7	12	-14	28
12	Bentleigh Greens	26	6	6	14	-24	24
13	Green Gully	26	4	6	16	-29	18
14	Dandenong Thunder	26	4	3	19	-42	15

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.