George Andrews Reserve · Analysis updated 03:51 UTC
Dandenong Thunder vs Oakleigh Cannons Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.65 expected goals for Dandenong Thunder and 1.83 for Oakleigh Cannons, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives Oakleigh Cannons the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Oakleigh Cannons win
65.6% probability
Expected goals
0.65 – 1.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dandenong Thunder home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Oakleigh Cannons to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 13% / 22% / 66% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.65 goals for Dandenong Thunder and 1.83 for Oakleigh Cannons, a combined 2.48 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
34%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
87%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.4%
- 0–214.0%
- 1–110.0%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–38.5%
Recent form
Dandenong Thunder
- 2026-08-29T05:00:00.000Z · A vs St. Albans Saints · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-08-22T07:15:00.000Z · H vs Oakleigh Cannons · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-16T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Preston Lions · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-01T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Dandenong City · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-25T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Altona Magic · 0-2 (L)
Oakleigh Cannons
- 2026-10-24T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Marconi Stallions · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-16T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Sydney Olympic · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-25T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Melbourne City · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T05:30:00.000Z · H vs Avondale · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T09:30:00.000Z · H vs South Melbourne · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T07:15:00.000Z · Dandenong Thunder 0-5 Oakleigh Cannons (Victoria NPL)
- 2026-05-08T10:15:00.000Z · Dandenong Thunder 0-2 Oakleigh Cannons (Victoria NPL)
- 2025-07-05T09:00:00.000Z · Dandenong Thunder 3-3 Oakleigh Cannons (Victoria NPL)
- 2025-03-28T09:15:00.000Z · Dandenong Thunder 1-3 Oakleigh Cannons (Victoria NPL)
- 2024-06-15T09:00:00.000Z · Dandenong Thunder 3-1 Oakleigh Cannons (Victoria NPL)
- 2024-04-01T07:00:00.000Z · Dandenong Thunder 1-1 Oakleigh Cannons (Victoria NPL)
- 2023-06-02T10:30:00.000Z · Dandenong Thunder 1-2 Oakleigh Cannons (Victoria NPL)
- 2023-03-04T08:00:00.000Z · Dandenong Thunder 1-2 Oakleigh Cannons (Victoria NPL)
- 2022-06-04T09:00:00.000Z · Dandenong Thunder 0-0 Oakleigh Cannons (Victoria NPL)
- 2022-03-04T09:30:00.000Z · Dandenong Thunder 1-2 Oakleigh Cannons (Victoria NPL)
Victoria NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oakleigh Cannons | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 32 | 54 |
| 2 | Preston Lions | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 51 |
| 3 | Hume City | 26 | 15 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 49 |
| 4 | Avondale | 26 | 15 | 2 | 9 | 31 | 47 |
| 5 | South Melbourne | 26 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 3 | 41 |
| 6 | Heidelberg United | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 40 |
| 7 | Sunshine Georgies | 26 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 38 |
| 8 | Dandenong City | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 37 |
| 9 | St. Albans Saints | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | -7 | 34 |
| 10 | Melbourne City II | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 30 |
| 11 | Altona Magic | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | -14 | 28 |
| 12 | Bentleigh Greens | 26 | 6 | 6 | 14 | -24 | 24 |
| 13 | Green Gully | 26 | 4 | 6 | 16 | -29 | 18 |
| 14 | Dandenong Thunder | 26 | 4 | 3 | 19 | -42 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Oakleigh Cannons win, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.