· Analysis updated 01:37 UTC
Dangjin Citizen vs Pocheon Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Dangjin Citizen and 1.75 for Pocheon, a combined total of 3.23. That distribution gives Pocheon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.4% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dangjin Citizen home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pocheon away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pocheon to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 33% / 23% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Dangjin Citizen and 1.75 for Pocheon, a combined 3.23 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.3%
- 1–29.0%
- 2–17.6%
- 0–17.0%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
Dangjin Citizen
- 2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Chuncheon · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-08-22T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Yeoju Sejong · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Jeonbuk Motors · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Yeoju Sejong · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Mokpo City · 6-1 (W)
Pocheon
- 2026-10-03T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Chuncheon · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Yangpyeong · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Yeoju Sejong · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Siheung Citizen · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Mokpo City · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
K3 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siheung Citizen | 23 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 55 |
| 2 | Pocheon | 23 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 19 | 46 |
| 3 | Daejeon Korail | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 41 |
| 4 | Busan Transportation | 23 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 37 |
| 5 | Gyeongju HNP | 23 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 35 |
| 6 | Dangjin Citizen | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 31 |
| 7 | Chuncheon | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 30 |
| 8 | Changwon City | 23 | 7 | 8 | 8 | -2 | 29 |
| 9 | Ulsan Citizen | 23 | 8 | 4 | 11 | -2 | 28 |
| 10 | Yeoju Sejong | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | -3 | 28 |
| 11 | Gangneung City | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | -11 | 27 |
| 12 | Mokpo City | 23 | 5 | 9 | 9 | -14 | 24 |
| 13 | Yangpyeong | 23 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -17 | 17 |
| 14 | Jeonbuk Motors II | 23 | 1 | 7 | 15 | -28 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.