Blackwell Meadows · Analysis updated 19:52 UTC
Darlington 1883 vs Merthyr Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Darlington 1883 and 1.35 for Merthyr Town, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Merthyr Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Merthyr Town win
47.2% probability
Expected goals
0.90 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Darlington 1883 home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Merthyr Town away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Merthyr Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 25% / 28% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.90 goals for Darlington 1883 and 1.35 for Merthyr Town, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.2%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–010.5%
- 0–29.6%
- 1–09.5%
Recent form
Darlington 1883
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Morecambe · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hebburn Town · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Redcar Town · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Marine · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Chorley · 2-5 (L)
Merthyr Town
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Marine · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Truro City · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Truro City · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Scarborough Athletic · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Chester · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-31T15:00:00.000Z · Darlington 1883 3-1 Merthyr Town (National League - North)
- 2025-11-01T15:00:00.000Z · Darlington 1883 1-3 Merthyr Town (National League - North)
National League - North table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hereford | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 26 |
| 2 | Oxford City | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 24 |
| 3 | Macclesfield | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 24 |
| 4 | South Shields | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 23 |
| 5 | King's Lynn Town | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 21 |
| 6 | Hednesford Town | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 21 |
| 7 | Chester | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 20 |
| 8 | Buxton | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 20 |
| 9 | Bedford Town | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 19 |
| 10 | Hebburn Town | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 19 |
| 11 | Morecambe | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 17 |
| 12 | Spalding United | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 17 |
| 13 | Chorley | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 14 | Worksop Town | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 17 |
| 15 | Marine | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 16 |
| 16 | Harborough Town | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 16 |
| 17 | Scarborough Athletic | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 15 |
| 18 | Merthyr Town | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 19 | Radcliffe | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | -5 | 15 |
| 20 | Brackley Town | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 15 |
| 21 | AFC Telford United | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 13 |
| 22 | Darlington 1883 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -7 | 11 |
| 23 | Southport | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -10 | 10 |
| 24 | Spennymoor Town | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -14 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Merthyr Town win, at 47.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.