· Analysis updated 02:03 UTC
Dartford vs Ashford United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Dartford and 1.49 for Ashford United, a combined total of 3.39. That distribution gives Dartford the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dartford win
47.5% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.49
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dartford home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ashford United away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dartford to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 22% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Dartford and 1.49 for Ashford United, a combined 3.39 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.5%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–27.1%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–06.4%
Recent form
Dartford
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Three Bridges · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Brentwood Town · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Whyteleafe · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wingate & Finchley · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Ramsgate · 1-2 (L)
Ashford United
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Deal Town · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ascot United · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Crowborough Athletic · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-01T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Dartford · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Maidstone Utd · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dartford win, at 47.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.