· Analysis updated 21:43 UTC
Daruvar vs Bilogora 91 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Daruvar and 2.52 for Bilogora 91, a combined total of 4.47. That distribution gives Bilogora 91 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 79% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bilogora 91 win
50.8% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 2.52
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bilogora 91 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bilogora 91 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 30% / 19% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Daruvar and 2.52 for Bilogora 91, a combined 4.47 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 82% and both teams to score at 79%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.1%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–35.9%
- 2–35.8%
- 1–15.6%
Recent form
Daruvar
Bilogora 91
- 2025-11-29T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Podravina Ludbreg · 2-1 (W)
- 2025-11-24T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Graničar Đurđevac · 0-4 (L)
- 2025-11-15T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Graničar Kotoriba · 3-2 (W)
- 2025-11-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nedelišće · 3-1 (W)
- 2025-11-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Polet · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Third NL - Sjever table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Koprivnica | 15 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 35 |
| 2 | Graničar Đurđevac | 15 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 35 | 34 |
| 3 | Dinamo Predavac | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 31 |
| 4 | Rudar Mursko Središće | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 28 |
| 5 | Bilogora 91 | 15 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 25 |
| 6 | Međimurec Pretetinec | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 25 |
| 7 | Polet | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 23 |
| 8 | Graničar Kotoriba | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 21 |
| 9 | Pitomača | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -9 | 19 |
| 10 | Slatina | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 18 |
| 11 | Podravina Ludbreg | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | -10 | 15 |
| 12 | Medjimurje Cakovec | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -9 | 13 |
| 13 | Garić Garešnica | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -13 | 13 |
| 14 | Daruvar | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -14 | 11 |
| 15 | Nedelišće | 14 | 3 | 1 | 10 | -16 | 10 |
| 16 | Dinamo Domašinec | 15 | 2 | 3 | 10 | -25 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bilogora 91 win, at 50.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 79% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.