· Analysis updated 13:49 UTC
DC United vs SC Paderborn 07 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.73 expected goals for DC United and 1.78 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives SC Paderborn 07 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
SC Paderborn 07 win
62.5% probability
Expected goals
0.73 – 1.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
DC United home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SC Paderborn 07 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SC Paderborn 07 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 15% / 23% / 63% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.73 goals for DC United and 1.78 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
38%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.6%
- 0–212.9%
- 1–110.6%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–08.2%
Recent form
DC United
- 2026-10-10T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Inter Miami · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-30T23:30:00.000Z · H vs SC Paderborn 07 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Vancouver Whitecaps · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-19T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Charlotte · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlanta United FC · 0-0 (D)
SC Paderborn 07
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs VfB Stuttgart · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-30T23:30:00.000Z · A vs DC United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · H vs 1899 Hoffenheim · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Dortmund · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · H vs SC Freiburg · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is SC Paderborn 07 win, at 62.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.