De Vijverberg · Referee Joey Kooij, Netherlands · Analysis updated 00:09 UTC
De Graafschap vs Almere City FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for De Graafschap and 3.00 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 4.13. That distribution gives Almere City FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Almere City FC win
75.0% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 3.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
De Graafschap home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Almere City FC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
25%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
89%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.2%
- 1–38.2%
- 0–27.3%
- 0–37.3%
- 1–46.1%
Recent form
De Graafschap
- 2026-10-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Waalwijk · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Jong Ajax · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Jong Utrecht · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Eindhoven · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Den Bosch · 1-0 (W)
Almere City FC
- 2026-10-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Roda · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Emmen · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Eindhoven · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Volendam · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Dordrecht · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · De Graafschap 1-4 Almere City FC (Eerste Divisie)
- 2026-05-09T18:00:00.000Z · De Graafschap 2-2 Almere City FC (Eerste Divisie)
- 2026-05-06T16:45:00.000Z · De Graafschap 1-3 Almere City FC (Eerste Divisie)
- 2026-01-18T13:30:00.000Z · De Graafschap 0-2 Almere City FC (Eerste Divisie)
- 2025-09-29T18:00:00.000Z · De Graafschap 3-2 Almere City FC (Eerste Divisie)
- 2023-01-20T19:00:00.000Z · De Graafschap 2-2 Almere City FC (Eerste Divisie)
- 2022-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · De Graafschap 1-2 Almere City FC (Eerste Divisie)
- 2022-01-21T19:00:00.000Z · De Graafschap 1-0 Almere City FC (Eerste Divisie)
- 2021-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · De Graafschap 2-1 Almere City FC (Eerste Divisie)
- 2021-04-23T19:00:00.000Z · De Graafschap 2-2 Almere City FC (Eerste Divisie)
Eerste Divisie table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Almere City FC win, at 75.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.