· Analysis updated 14:26 UTC
De Graafschap vs Excelsior Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.97 expected goals for De Graafschap and 3.38 for Excelsior, a combined total of 5.35. That distribution gives Excelsior the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 89% for over 2.5 goals and 83% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Excelsior win
64.7% probability
Expected goals
1.97 – 3.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
De Graafschap home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Excelsior away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Excelsior to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 20% / 15% / 65% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.97 goals for De Graafschap and 3.38 for Excelsior, a combined 5.35 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
35%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–36.0%
- 2–35.9%
- 1–25.3%
- 2–25.3%
- 1–45.1%
Recent form
De Graafschap
- 2026-09-27T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Den Bosch · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:45:00.000Z · H vs NAC Breda · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Emmen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Heracles · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Almere City FC · 1-4 (L)
Excelsior
- 2026-10-11T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Groningen · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ajax · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Utrecht · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T16:45:00.000Z · A vs NEC Nijmegen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Willem II · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Excelsior win, at 64.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 83% and over 2.5 goals at 89%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.