De Vijverberg · Analysis updated 11:59 UTC
De Graafschap W vs ADO Den Haag W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.75 expected goals for De Graafschap W and 1.00 for ADO Den Haag W, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives De Graafschap W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
De Graafschap W win
73.9% probability
Expected goals
2.75 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
ADO Den Haag W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates De Graafschap W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 74% / 15% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.75 goals for De Graafschap W and 1.00 for ADO Den Haag W, a combined 3.75 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 72% and both teams to score at 59%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
26%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–08.9%
- 2–18.9%
- 3–08.2%
- 3–18.2%
- 1–06.5%
Recent form
De Graafschap W
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs PSV/Eindhoven W · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:15:00.000Z · A vs PEC Zwolle W · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:45:00.000Z · H vs ADO Den Haag W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Ajax W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Heerenveen W · 1-0 (W)
ADO Den Haag W
- 2026-09-20T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Heerenveen W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:45:00.000Z · A vs De Graafschap W · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:45:00.000Z · A vs PEC Zwolle W · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-23T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Twente W · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-08-16T14:45:00.000Z · A vs AZ W · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eredivisie Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Twente W | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 18 |
| 2 | Ajax W | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 15 |
| 3 | AZ W | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 12 |
| 4 | PSV/Eindhoven W | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Heerenveen W | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 6 | ADO Den Haag W | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -10 | 7 |
| 7 | PEC Zwolle W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 8 | De Graafschap W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 9 | Feyenoord W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 10 | Utrecht W | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is De Graafschap W win, at 73.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.