· Analysis updated 16:06 UTC
De Kempen vs Tongeren Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for De Kempen and 0.93 for Tongeren, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives De Kempen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
De Kempen win
60.8% probability
Expected goals
1.93 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
De Kempen home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tongeren away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates De Kempen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 22% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.93 goals for De Kempen and 0.93 for Tongeren, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.1%
- 2–010.7%
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–06.9%
Recent form
De Kempen
- 2026-10-10T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Hades · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Nijlen · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Diegem Sport · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Rupel Boom · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Wilrijk · 4-0 (W)
Tongeren
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hades · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Tempo Overijse · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Eendracht Termien · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Cappellen · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Bocholt · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second Amateur Division - VFV B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tempo Overijse | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 18 |
| 2 | Hades | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | De Kempen | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 4 | Wilrijk | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 5 | Royal Antwerp II | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 | Diegem Sport | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 | Racing Mechelen | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 8 | Eendracht Termien | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 9 | Wellen | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | Rotselaar | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Rupel Boom | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 7 |
| 12 | Nijlen | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 7 |
| 13 | Bocholt | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 5 |
| 14 | Tongeren | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | Sint-Truiden II | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Cappellen | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is De Kempen win, at 60.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.