Sportpark Zuid · Analysis updated 14:36 UTC
De Treffers vs Heracles Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for De Treffers and 1.68 for Heracles, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives De Treffers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.2% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
De Treffers home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Heracles away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates De Treffers to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 23% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for De Treffers and 1.68 for Heracles, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.7%
- 2–18.3%
- 1–28.1%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–05.8%
Recent form
De Treffers
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Almere City II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Barendrecht · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Hoek · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Spakenburg · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Katwijk · 2-1 (W)
Heracles
- 2026-10-18T14:45:00.000Z · A vs MVV · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Waalwijk · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Helmond Sport · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Vitesse · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Almere City FC · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.