· Analysis updated 15:21 UTC
DEAC vs Tarpa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.10 expected goals for DEAC and 0.86 for Tarpa, a combined total of 3.96. That distribution gives DEAC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 81%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 81% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
DEAC win
81.3% probability
Expected goals
3.10 – 0.86
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
DEAC home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Tarpa away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates DEAC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 81%, against 81% / 12% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.10 goals for DEAC and 0.86 for Tarpa, a combined 3.96 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
19%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–09.5%
- 2–09.1%
- 3–18.1%
- 2–17.9%
- 4–07.3%
Recent form
DEAC
- 2026-08-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Kisvárda II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Albidok · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Debrecen II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Tarpa · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Nyiregyhaza II · 4-2 (W)
Tarpa
- 2026-10-11T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Kisvárda II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Debrecen II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Nyiregyhaza II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Salgótarjáni BTC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tiszafuredi VSE · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
NB III - Northeast table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ózd Sajóvölgye | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 24 |
| 2 | Cigand SE | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 23 |
| 3 | DEAC | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 20 |
| 4 | Kisvárda II | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 |
| 5 | Debrecen II | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Diósgyőr II | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | Mátészalka | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 8 | Gödöllő | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| 9 | Eger | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 16 |
| 10 | Füzesabony | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 11 | Tiszaújváros | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 | Hajdúnánás | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 13 | Salgótarjáni BTC | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -8 | 9 |
| 14 | Tiszafuredi VSE | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -9 | 9 |
| 15 | Tarpa | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | -14 | 6 |
| 16 | Nyiregyhaza II | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | -16 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is DEAC win, at 81.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 81% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.