· Analysis updated 10:44 UTC
Debrecen II vs Salgótarjáni BTC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for Debrecen II and 1.45 for Salgótarjáni BTC, a combined total of 3.95. That distribution gives Debrecen II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Debrecen II win
60.4% probability
Expected goals
2.50 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Debrecen II home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Salgótarjáni BTC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Debrecen II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 19% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.50 goals for Debrecen II and 1.45 for Salgótarjáni BTC, a combined 3.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.7%
- 3–17.3%
- 1–17.0%
- 2–26.3%
- 2–06.0%
Recent form
Debrecen II
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Tarpa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tiszafuredi VSE · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Cigand SE · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tiszaújváros · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Ózd Sajóvölgye · 2-5 (L)
Salgótarjáni BTC
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs DEAC · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Nyiregyhaza II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Füzesabony · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tarpa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Diósgyőr II · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
NB III - Northeast table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ózd Sajóvölgye | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 30 |
| 2 | Cigand SE | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 29 |
| 3 | DEAC | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 26 |
| 4 | Debrecen II | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 22 |
| 5 | Kisvárda II | 12 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 21 |
| 6 | Diósgyőr II | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 7 | Gödöllő | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 19 |
| 8 | Mátészalka | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 9 | Eger | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 17 |
| 10 | Tiszaújváros | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -3 | 16 |
| 11 | Füzesabony | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -3 | 16 |
| 12 | Tiszafuredi VSE | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 10 |
| 13 | Hajdúnánás | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -18 | 10 |
| 14 | Salgótarjáni BTC | 12 | 3 | 0 | 9 | -12 | 9 |
| 15 | Tarpa | 12 | 3 | 0 | 9 | -16 | 9 |
| 16 | Nyiregyhaza II | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | -20 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Debrecen II win, at 60.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.