Tusko · Analysis updated 14:39 UTC
Dečić vs Bokelj Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for Dečić and 0.72 for Bokelj, a combined total of 1.57. That distribution gives Dečić the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 36%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 21% for over 2.5 goals and 29% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.4% probability
Expected goals
0.85 – 0.72
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dečić home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 9 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dečić to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 36% / 36% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.85 goals for Dečić and 0.72 for Bokelj, a combined 1.57 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
64%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–020.8%
- 1–017.6%
- 0–115.0%
- 1–112.7%
- 2–07.5%
Recent form
Dečić
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Mornar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sutjeska · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrovac · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Mladost DG · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Jezero · 2-1 (W)
Bokelj
- 2026-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal Tivat · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Dečić · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sutjeska · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Petrovac · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Otrant-Olympic · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-17T18:00:00.000Z · Dečić 1-0 Bokelj (First League)
- 2026-05-24T18:00:00.000Z · Dečić 0-1 Bokelj (First League)
- 2026-04-04T14:00:00.000Z · Dečić 0-0 Bokelj (First League)
- 2025-12-06T12:00:00.000Z · Dečić 1-1 Bokelj (First League)
- 2025-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · Dečić 0-2 Bokelj (First League)
- 2025-04-20T16:00:00.000Z · Dečić 1-0 Bokelj (First League)
- 2025-03-24T13:00:00.000Z · Dečić 1-0 Bokelj (First League)
- 2024-10-19T16:00:00.000Z · Dečić 1-2 Bokelj (First League)
- 2024-08-18T18:00:00.000Z · Dečić 1-0 Bokelj (First League)
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Otrant-Olympic | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 17 |
| 2 | Buducnost Podgorica | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 3 | Sutjeska | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Dečić | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | Bokelj | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | Mornar | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Mladost DG | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 8 | Jezero | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 9 | Petrovac | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Arsenal Tivat | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 29% and over 2.5 goals at 21%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.