Stadion Tuško Polje · Referee Tural Qurbanov, Azerbaijan · Analysis updated 12:16 UTC
Dečić vs FK Liepaja Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for Dečić and 1.30 for FK Liepaja, a combined total of 2.41. That distribution gives FK Liepaja the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.2% probability
Expected goals
1.11 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dečić home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
FK Liepaja away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FK Liepaja to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 32% / 28% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.11 goals for Dečić and 1.30 for FK Liepaja, a combined 2.41 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.0%
- 0–111.7%
- 1–010.0%
- 0–09.0%
- 1–28.4%
Recent form
Dečić
- 2026-10-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bokelj · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Buducnost Podgorica · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-14T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sutjeska · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Mornar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sutjeska · 0-2 (L)
FK Liepaja
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs FS Jelgava · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Auda · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs BFC Daugavpils · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ogre United · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rīgas FS · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | FC Lugano | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Brann | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 4 | Trabzonspor | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | Twente | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | Monaco | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 7 | St. Truiden | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | HNK Hajduk Split | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Brighton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| 10 | FC Copenhagen | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 11 | Universitatea Craiova | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 12 | Mjallby AIF | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 13 | Ajax | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Borac Banja Luka | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Atalanta | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 16 | SC Braga | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 17 | Gent | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 18 | SC Freiburg | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 19 | FC Nordsjaelland | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 20 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 21 | Riga | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 22 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 23 | CSKA Sofia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 24 | FK Jablonec | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 25 | FC Midtjylland | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 26 | Aarhus | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 27 | Pafos | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 28 | Heart Of Midlothian | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 29 | FC Iberia 1999 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 30 | Getafe | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 31 | Kairat Almaty | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 1 |
| 32 | FC Thun | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 33 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 34 | KuPS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 35 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 36 | Kauno Žalgiris | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.