Tusko · Analysis updated 16:03 UTC
Dečić vs Mladost DG Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.71 expected goals for Dečić and 0.78 for Mladost DG, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives Dečić the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Dečić win
59.6% probability
Expected goals
1.71 – 0.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dečić home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mladost DG away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dečić to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 24% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.71 goals for Dečić and 0.78 for Mladost DG, a combined 2.48 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.2%
- 2–012.2%
- 1–111.1%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.3%
Recent form
Dečić
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Mornar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sutjeska · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrovac · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Mladost DG · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Jezero · 2-1 (W)
Mladost DG
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mornar · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-28T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Petrovac · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bokelj · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Buducnost Podgorica · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Arsenal Tivat · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Otrant-Olympic | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 17 |
| 2 | Buducnost Podgorica | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 3 | Sutjeska | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Dečić | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | Bokelj | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | Mornar | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Mladost DG | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 8 | Jezero | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 9 | Petrovac | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Arsenal Tivat | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dečić win, at 59.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.