Tusko · Analysis updated 15:35 UTC
Dečić vs Petrovac Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.78 expected goals for Dečić and 0.60 for Petrovac, a combined total of 1.38. That distribution gives Dečić the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 39%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 16% for over 2.5 goals and 24% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 25%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
74.5% probability
Expected goals
0.78 – 0.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dečić home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 36% / 39% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.78 goals for Dečić and 0.60 for Petrovac, a combined 1.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
62%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–025.3%
- 1–019.6%
- 0–115.2%
- 1–111.8%
- 2–07.6%
Recent form
Dečić
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Mornar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sutjeska · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrovac · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Mladost DG · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Jezero · 2-1 (W)
Petrovac
- 2026-10-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Otrant-Olympic · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kom · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-28T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Mladost DG · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Buducnost Podgorica · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal Tivat · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-02T16:00:00.000Z · Dečić 1-1 Petrovac (First League)
- 2026-03-07T13:00:00.000Z · Dečić 0-1 Petrovac (First League)
- 2025-11-02T14:00:00.000Z · Dečić 1-1 Petrovac (First League)
- 2025-08-31T17:00:00.000Z · Dečić 2-2 Petrovac (First League)
- 2025-05-18T15:30:00.000Z · Dečić 1-1 Petrovac (First League)
- 2025-04-30T15:00:00.000Z · Dečić 2-2 Petrovac (Cup)
- 2025-04-16T13:30:00.000Z · Dečić 1-0 Petrovac (Cup)
- 2025-03-29T15:30:00.000Z · Dečić 0-0 Petrovac (First League)
- 2024-11-23T13:00:00.000Z · Dečić 1-0 Petrovac (First League)
- 2024-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · Dečić 1-0 Petrovac (First League)
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Otrant-Olympic | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 20 |
| 2 | Sutjeska | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 18 |
| 3 | Buducnost Podgorica | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | Mornar | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 5 | Dečić | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Bokelj | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 15 |
| 7 | Mladost DG | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 12 |
| 8 | Jezero | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -6 | 11 |
| 9 | Petrovac | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 10 | Arsenal Tivat | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 74.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 24% and over 2.5 goals at 16%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.