· Analysis updated 17:38 UTC
Defensa y Justicia Res. vs Platense Res. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.59 expected goals for Defensa y Justicia Res. and 0.71 for Platense Res., a combined total of 2.31. That distribution gives Defensa y Justicia Res. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Defensa y Justicia Res. win
58.5% probability
Expected goals
1.59 – 0.71
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Defensa y Justicia Res. home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Platense Res. away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Defensa y Justicia Res. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 25% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.59 goals for Defensa y Justicia Res. and 0.71 for Platense Res., a combined 2.31 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.9%
- 2–012.7%
- 1–111.3%
- 0–09.9%
- 2–19.0%
Recent form
Defensa y Justicia Res.
- 2026-08-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Lanús Res. · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Newell's Old Boys Res. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Colón Res. · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Huracán Res. · 1-1 (D)
Platense Res.
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Huracán Res. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-24T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Argentinos Juniors Res. · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ferro 2 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Boca Juniors Res. · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-02T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Independiente Res. · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Reserve League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Defensa y Justicia Res. win, at 58.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.