Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello · Referee N. Lamolina · Analysis updated 17:14 UTC
Defensa Y Justicia vs Belgrano Cordoba Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.55 expected goals for Defensa Y Justicia and 0.78 for Belgrano Cordoba, a combined total of 1.33. That distribution gives Belgrano Cordoba the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 39%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 15% for over 2.5 goals and 23% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 27%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.7% probability
Expected goals
0.55 – 0.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Defensa Y Justicia home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Belgrano Cordoba away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
61%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–026.6%
- 0–120.6%
- 1–014.6%
- 1–111.3%
- 0–28.0%
Recent form
Defensa Y Justicia
- 2026-10-24T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Talleres Cordoba · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-16T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Instituto Cordoba · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T00:45:00.000Z · A vs Union Santa Fe · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T17:45:00.000Z · H vs San Lorenzo · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Central Cordoba de Santiago · 2-2 (D)
Belgrano Cordoba
- 2026-10-18T23:15:00.000Z · H vs River Plate · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Racing Club · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Talleres Cordoba · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T22:15:00.000Z · H vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Sarmiento Junin · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-23T20:00:00.000Z · Defensa Y Justicia 2-1 Belgrano Cordoba (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2026-02-20T20:15:00.000Z · Defensa Y Justicia 1-1 Belgrano Cordoba (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2025-08-31T19:45:00.000Z · Defensa Y Justicia 2-1 Belgrano Cordoba (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2025-02-24T00:00:00.000Z · Defensa Y Justicia 0-2 Belgrano Cordoba (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-11-02T23:00:00.000Z · Defensa Y Justicia 2-1 Belgrano Cordoba (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-03-08T00:15:00.000Z · Defensa Y Justicia 1-1 Belgrano Cordoba (Copa de la Liga Profesional)
- 2023-10-16T23:00:00.000Z · Defensa Y Justicia 0-2 Belgrano Cordoba (Copa de la Liga Profesional)
- 2023-06-13T21:00:00.000Z · Defensa Y Justicia 2-0 Belgrano Cordoba (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2018-09-01T16:15:00.000Z · Defensa Y Justicia 1-1 Belgrano Cordoba (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2018-03-12T22:00:00.000Z · Defensa Y Justicia 1-1 Belgrano Cordoba (Liga Profesional Argentina)
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 23% and over 2.5 goals at 15%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.