Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello · Referee A. Gariano · Analysis updated 01:24 UTC
Defensa Y Justicia vs Boca Juniors Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Defensa Y Justicia and 1.30 for Boca Juniors, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Boca Juniors the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
71.4% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Defensa Y Justicia home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Boca Juniors away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Boca Juniors to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 29% / 28% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Defensa Y Justicia and 1.30 for Boca Juniors, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.0%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–010.0%
- 1–010.0%
- 0–28.5%
Recent form
Defensa Y Justicia
- 2026-10-24T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Talleres Cordoba · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-16T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Instituto Cordoba · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T00:45:00.000Z · A vs Union Santa Fe · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T17:45:00.000Z · H vs San Lorenzo · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Central Cordoba de Santiago · 2-2 (D)
Boca Juniors
- 2026-10-25T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Independiente · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-21T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Vasco DA Gama · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Talleres Cordoba · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-14T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Vasco DA Gama · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-09T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Instituto Cordoba · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.