Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello · Referee J. P. Loustau · Analysis updated 16:34 UTC
Defensa Y Justicia vs Platense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Defensa Y Justicia and 0.94 for Platense, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Defensa Y Justicia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.5% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 0.94
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Defensa Y Justicia home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Platense away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Defensa Y Justicia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 30% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for Defensa Y Justicia and 0.94 for Platense, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.2%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–012.2%
- 0–111.5%
- 2–08.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.1%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | No | 1.67 | 55.7% | 58.2% | 1.72 | +2.5 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.15 | 82.0% | 83.9% | 1.19 | +1.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.36 | 68.4% | 70.3% | 1.42 | +1.9 |
| Match result | Home | 2.38 | 39.2% | 40.8% | 2.45 | +1.6 |
| Match result | Away | 3.35 | 27.9% | 29.5% | 3.39 | +1.6 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.48 | 64.2% | 65.0% | 1.54 | +0.8 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.65 | 35.8% | 35.0% | 2.86 | -0.8 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.55 | 60.0% | 59.2% | 1.69 | -0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.30 | 71.6% | 70.5% | 1.42 | -1.1 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 5.25 | 18.0% | 16.1% | 6.21 | -1.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.10 | 44.3% | 41.8% | 2.39 | -2.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.84 | 32.9% | 29.7% | 3.37 | -3.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Defensa Y Justicia
- 2026-10-10T00:45:00.000Z · A vs Union Santa Fe · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T17:45:00.000Z · H vs San Lorenzo · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Central Cordoba de Santiago · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-11T22:15:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia M. · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Lanus · 0-1 (L)
Platense
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Argentinos JRS · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-05T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Velez Sarsfield · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T00:15:00.000Z · H vs Estudiantes L.P. · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Newells Old Boys · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-15T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Fluminense · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.