Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello · Referee F. Echenique · Analysis updated 18:07 UTC
Defensa Y Justicia vs Velez Sarsfield Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.83 expected goals for Defensa Y Justicia and 0.88 for Velez Sarsfield, a combined total of 1.70. That distribution gives Velez Sarsfield the largest share of the 1X2 market at 34%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 24% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 34% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.4% probability
Expected goals
0.83 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Defensa Y Justicia home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Velez Sarsfield away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Velez Sarsfield to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 34%, against 32% / 34% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.83 goals for Defensa Y Justicia and 0.88 for Velez Sarsfield, a combined 1.70 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
66%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–018.3%
- 0–116.0%
- 1–015.1%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–27.0%
Recent form
Defensa Y Justicia
- 2026-10-24T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Talleres Cordoba · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-16T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Instituto Cordoba · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T00:45:00.000Z · A vs Union Santa Fe · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T17:45:00.000Z · H vs San Lorenzo · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Central Cordoba de Santiago · 2-2 (D)
Velez Sarsfield
- 2026-10-17T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia M. · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Lanus · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-05T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Platense · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-21T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Tigre · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Newells Old Boys · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 24%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.