Salomon Boeseldin · Analysis updated 21:27 UTC
Defensores de Belgrano VR vs Alvarado Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Defensores de Belgrano VR and 0.73 for Alvarado, a combined total of 1.68. That distribution gives Defensores de Belgrano VR the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 24% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
73.3% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Defensores de Belgrano VR home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Alvarado away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Defensores de Belgrano VR to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 34% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.95 goals for Defensores de Belgrano VR and 0.73 for Alvarado, a combined 1.68 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
66%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–018.7%
- 1–017.8%
- 0–113.6%
- 1–112.9%
- 2–08.5%
Recent form
Defensores de Belgrano VR
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sarmiento de La Banda · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs San Martin Formosa · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs 9 de Julio Rafaela · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Belgrano · 2-0 (W)
Alvarado
- 2026-10-18T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Cipolletti · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Cipolletti · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Defensores de Belgrano VR · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Defensores de Belgrano VR · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 73.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 24%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.