Salomon Boeseldin · Analysis updated 23:51 UTC
Defensores de Belgrano VR vs Bartolomé Mitre Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.83 expected goals for Defensores de Belgrano VR and 0.88 for Bartolomé Mitre, a combined total of 1.71. That distribution gives Bartolomé Mitre the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 25% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.5% probability
Expected goals
0.83 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Defensores de Belgrano VR home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bartolomé Mitre away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bartolomé Mitre to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 35%, against 32% / 34% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.83 goals for Defensores de Belgrano VR and 0.88 for Bartolomé Mitre, a combined 1.71 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
66%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–018.1%
- 0–116.0%
- 1–015.0%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–27.1%
Recent form
Defensores de Belgrano VR
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sarmiento de La Banda · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs San Martin Formosa · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs 9 de Julio Rafaela · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Belgrano · 2-0 (W)
Bartolomé Mitre
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs San Martin Formosa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T20:00:00.000Z · A vs 9 de Julio Rafaela · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T19:05:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Belgrano · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Douglas Haig · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 25%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.