Salomon Boeseldin · Analysis updated 17:59 UTC
Defensores de Belgrano VR vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Defensores de Belgrano VR and 0.68 for Gimnasia Chivilcoy, a combined total of 1.78. That distribution gives Defensores de Belgrano VR the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Defensores de Belgrano VR win
45.5% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 0.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Defensores de Belgrano VR home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gimnasia Chivilcoy away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.6%
- 0–016.9%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–111.4%
- 2–010.3%
Recent form
Defensores de Belgrano VR
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sarmiento de La Banda · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs San Martin Formosa · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs 9 de Julio Rafaela · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Belgrano · 2-0 (W)
Gimnasia Chivilcoy
- 2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Douglas Haig · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Sol de América · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Bartolomé Mitre · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento de La Banda · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-23T18:30:00.000Z · Defensores de Belgrano VR 0-1 Gimnasia Chivilcoy (Torneo Federal A)
- 2026-07-25T18:00:00.000Z · Defensores de Belgrano VR 2-2 Gimnasia Chivilcoy (Torneo Federal A)
- 2026-05-16T18:30:00.000Z · Defensores de Belgrano VR 0-3 Gimnasia Chivilcoy (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-07-06T18:30:00.000Z · Defensores de Belgrano VR 0-1 Gimnasia Chivilcoy (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-05-04T18:30:00.000Z · Defensores de Belgrano VR 1-2 Gimnasia Chivilcoy (Torneo Federal A)
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Defensores de Belgrano VR win, at 45.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.