Salomon Boeseldin · Analysis updated 00:38 UTC
Defensores de Belgrano VR vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Defensores de Belgrano VR and 0.99 for Gimnasia Chivilcoy, a combined total of 2.06. That distribution gives Defensores de Belgrano VR the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.4% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Defensores de Belgrano VR home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gimnasia Chivilcoy away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.7%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–012.7%
- 0–112.5%
- 2–07.3%
Recent form
Defensores de Belgrano VR
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sarmiento de La Banda · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs San Martin Formosa · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs 9 de Julio Rafaela · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Belgrano · 2-0 (W)
Gimnasia Chivilcoy
- 2026-10-17T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Defensores de Vilelas · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Defensores de Vilelas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Douglas Haig · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-23T18:30:00.000Z · Defensores de Belgrano VR 0-1 Gimnasia Chivilcoy (Torneo Federal A)
- 2026-07-25T18:00:00.000Z · Defensores de Belgrano VR 2-2 Gimnasia Chivilcoy (Torneo Federal A)
- 2026-05-16T18:30:00.000Z · Defensores de Belgrano VR 0-3 Gimnasia Chivilcoy (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-07-06T18:30:00.000Z · Defensores de Belgrano VR 0-1 Gimnasia Chivilcoy (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-05-04T18:30:00.000Z · Defensores de Belgrano VR 1-2 Gimnasia Chivilcoy (Torneo Federal A)
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.