Estadio del Club Defensores De Vilelas · Analysis updated 13:17 UTC
Defensores de Vilelas vs Boca Unidos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.05 expected goals for Defensores de Vilelas and 1.61 for Boca Unidos, a combined total of 3.66. That distribution gives Defensores de Vilelas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Defensores de Vilelas win
48.3% probability
Expected goals
2.05 – 1.61
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Defensores de Vilelas home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Boca Unidos away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Defensores de Vilelas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 21% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.05 goals for Defensores de Vilelas and 1.61 for Boca Unidos, a combined 3.66 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.7%
- 1–18.5%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–26.8%
- 3–16.0%
Recent form
Defensores de Vilelas
- 2026-08-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Tucuman Central · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-08-08T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Las Parejas · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-03T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento Resistencia · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-07-12T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Bartolomé Mitre · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-04T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento de La Banda · 3-0 (W)
Boca Unidos
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Defensores de Vilelas · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs El Linqueño · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Concepción · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Tucuman Central · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Las Parejas · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Defensores de Vilelas win, at 48.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.