Stora Valla · Analysis updated 07:48 UTC
Degerfors IF vs Vasteras SK FK Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.53 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Vasteras SK FK the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Vasteras SK FK win
49.4% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Degerfors IF home form
3 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Vasteras SK FK away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vasteras SK FK to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 25% / 26% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Degerfors IF and 1.53 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.2%
- 1–112.2%
- 0–29.3%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–08.0%
Recent form
Degerfors IF
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs BK Hacken · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Kalmar FF · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Mjallby AIF · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs IK brage · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Hammarby FF · 0-1 (L)
Vasteras SK FK
- 2026-10-23T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Halmstad · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mjallby AIF · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs IFK Goteborg · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Hammarby FF · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Malmo FF · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sirius | 25 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 55 |
| 2 | Hammarby FF | 25 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 31 | 49 |
| 3 | Djurgardens IF | 25 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 29 | 48 |
| 4 | BK Hacken | 25 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 17 | 45 |
| 5 | IF Elfsborg | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 42 |
| 6 | Vasteras SK FK | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | -2 | 38 |
| 7 | Malmo FF | 25 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 37 |
| 8 | AIK Stockholm | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | -3 | 37 |
| 9 | IFK Goteborg | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | -9 | 37 |
| 10 | IF Brommapojkarna | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 33 |
| 11 | Gais | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 31 |
| 12 | Mjallby AIF | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | -14 | 23 |
| 13 | Kalmar FF | 25 | 6 | 4 | 15 | -18 | 22 |
| 14 | Degerfors IF | 25 | 5 | 5 | 15 | -20 | 20 |
| 15 | Orgryte IS | 25 | 4 | 7 | 14 | -25 | 19 |
| 16 | Halmstad | 25 | 4 | 5 | 16 | -28 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vasteras SK FK win, at 49.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.