Dekani vs Ilirija Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for Dekani and 1.70 for Ilirija, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Ilirija the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Ilirija win

60.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.75 – 1.70

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Dekani home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ilirija away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Dekani win16%

Draw24%

Ilirija win60%

Double chance 1X

40%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

84%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score43%

Correct score

0–114.7%
0–212.5%
1–111.0%
1–29.4%
0–08.6%

Recent form

Dekani

2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ilirija · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Krka · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Beltinci · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Tabor Sežana · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Krško · 0-0 (D)

Ilirija

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Krka · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Beltinci · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dekani · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Krško · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Jesenice · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-03-20T14:30:00.000Z · Dekani 2-2 Ilirija (2. SNL)
2025-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · Dekani 3-1 Ilirija (2. SNL)
2025-04-12T15:00:00.000Z · Dekani 2-1 Ilirija (2. SNL)
2024-09-28T14:00:00.000Z · Dekani 0-0 Ilirija (2. SNL)
2024-03-02T14:00:00.000Z · Dekani 0-0 Ilirija (2. SNL)
2023-08-13T15:30:00.000Z · Dekani 0-1 Ilirija (2. SNL)
2023-04-08T14:00:00.000Z · Dekani 1-0 Ilirija (2. SNL)
2022-09-24T14:00:00.000Z · Dekani 0-0 Ilirija (2. SNL)
2022-04-29T15:00:00.000Z · Dekani 1-1 Ilirija (2. SNL)
2021-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · Dekani 1-1 Ilirija (2. SNL)

2. SNL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tabor Sežana	11	9	1	1	15	28
2	Beltinci	11	8	1	2	17	25
3	Triglav	11	8	1	2	16	25
4	Rudar	11	6	0	5	4	18
5	Bilje	11	6	0	5	-2	18
6	Jesenice	11	5	2	4	3	17
7	Bistrica	11	5	2	4	-1	17
8	Slovan Ljubljana	11	5	2	4	-4	17
9	Ilirija	11	5	1	5	5	16
10	Dekani	11	4	3	4	0	15
11	Dren Vrhnika	11	4	2	5	-4	14
12	Primorje	11	2	4	5	-6	10
13	Krško	11	2	3	6	-10	9
14	Dravinja	11	2	2	7	-14	8
15	Krka	11	2	1	8	-10	7
16	Brežice	11	1	3	7	-9	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Ilirija win, at 60.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.

A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.