· Analysis updated 15:37 UTC
Dekani vs Tabor Sežana Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.61 expected goals for Dekani and 1.04 for Tabor Sežana, a combined total of 1.65. That distribution gives Tabor Sežana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 23% for over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tabor Sežana win
45.2% probability
Expected goals
0.61 – 1.04
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dekani home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tabor Sežana away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tabor Sežana to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 21% / 34% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.61 goals for Dekani and 1.04 for Tabor Sežana, a combined 1.65 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–119.9%
- 0–019.2%
- 1–112.2%
- 1–011.8%
- 0–210.3%
Recent form
Dekani
- 2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ilirija · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Krka · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Beltinci · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Tabor Sežana · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Krško · 0-0 (D)
Tabor Sežana
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Brežice · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Krško · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Triglav · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Jesenice · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Brinje-Grosuplje · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tabor Sežana | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 28 |
| 2 | Beltinci | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 25 |
| 3 | Triglav | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 25 |
| 4 | Rudar | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Bilje | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 18 |
| 6 | Jesenice | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 7 | Bistrica | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 17 |
| 8 | Slovan Ljubljana | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 17 |
| 9 | Ilirija | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 16 |
| 10 | Dekani | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 11 | Dren Vrhnika | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 12 | Primorje | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 13 | Krško | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 9 |
| 14 | Dravinja | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 8 |
| 15 | Krka | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -10 | 7 |
| 16 | Brežice | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tabor Sežana win, at 45.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 30% and over 2.5 goals at 23%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.