La Blancherie · Analysis updated 15:26 UTC
Delémont vs Buochs Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.04 expected goals for Delémont and 1.13 for Buochs, a combined total of 3.17. That distribution gives Delémont the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Delémont win
58.3% probability
Expected goals
2.04 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Delémont home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Buochs away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Delémont to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 21% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.04 goals for Delémont and 1.13 for Buochs, a combined 3.17 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.7%
- 2–08.7%
- 1–08.6%
- 3–16.7%
Recent form
Delémont
- 2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Bassecourt · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Buochs · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Grasshopper II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Muri-Gümligen · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Zug · 0-1 (L)
Buochs
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Delémont · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Langenthal · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Wohlen · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Grasshopper II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Muri-Gümligen · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Liga Classic - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Langenthal | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 23 |
| 2 | Schötz | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 20 |
| 3 | Courtételle | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 19 |
| 4 | Concordia Basel | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Delémont | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 17 |
| 6 | Muttenz | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 17 |
| 7 | Solothurn | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 16 |
| 8 | Grasshopper II | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 9 | Buochs | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 13 |
| 10 | Muri-Gümligen | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 11 | Thun II | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 12 | FC Wohlen | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 13 | Bassecourt | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 10 |
| 14 | Zug | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 15 | Black Stars | 10 | 1 | 6 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 16 | Münsingen | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | -18 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Delémont win, at 58.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.