· Referee O. Nicholson · Analysis updated 17:16 UTC
Delfines Del Este vs Defence Force Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Delfines Del Este and 0.63 for Defence Force, a combined total of 2.18. That distribution gives Delfines Del Este the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Delfines Del Este win
59.6% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 0.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Delfines Del Este home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Delfines Del Este to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 25% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.55 goals for Delfines Del Este and 0.63 for Defence Force, a combined 2.18 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 37% and both teams to score at 37%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.5%
- 2–013.6%
- 0–011.3%
- 1–111.0%
- 2–18.6%
Recent form
Delfines Del Este
- 2026-09-15T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Defence Force · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Sando · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Universidad O&M · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-02T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Broki · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Jarabacoa · 1-0 (W)
Defence Force
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
CONCACAF Caribbean Club Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Violette AC | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 2 | Portmore United | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | Club Sando | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 4 | Mount Pleasant Academy | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 5 | Salcedo | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Delfines Del Este | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 7 | Cibao | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 8 | Defence Force | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 9 | Cavalier | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
| 10 | Broki | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Delfines Del Este win, at 59.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.