· Analysis updated 00:55 UTC
Democrata SL vs Ipatinga Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.04 expected goals for Democrata SL and 0.65 for Ipatinga, a combined total of 4.70. That distribution gives Democrata SL the largest share of the 1X2 market at 92%, with the draw at 6%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 4–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 92% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Democrata SL win
92.0% probability
Expected goals
4.04 – 0.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Democrata SL home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ipatinga away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Democrata SL to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 92%, against 92% / 6% / 2% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.04 goals for Democrata SL and 0.65 for Ipatinga, a combined 4.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
98%
Double chance 12
94%
Double chance X2
8%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 4–010.2%
- 3–010.0%
- 5–08.2%
- 2–07.4%
- 4–16.6%
Recent form
Democrata SL
- 2026-08-15T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Villa Nova · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-12T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Villa Nova · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Mamoré · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-02T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Mamoré · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs CAP · 2-1 (W)
Ipatinga
- 2026-07-13T23:00:00.000Z · A vs CSA · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-07-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Coimbra · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-07-04T20:00:00.000Z · H vs CSA · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Democrata SL · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-07-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Aymorés · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Mineiro - 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uberaba | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 23 |
| 2 | Valeriodoce | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 20 |
| 3 | Democrata SL | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 17 |
| 4 | BOA | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 5 | Aymorés | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 16 |
| 6 | Villa Nova | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14 |
| 7 | CAP | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| 8 | Mamoré | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 9 | Guarani MG | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 10 | Coimbra | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Caldense | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 6 |
| 12 | Ipatinga | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -27 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Democrata SL win, at 92.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.
A 92% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.