De Vliert · Referee S. Shukrula · Analysis updated 13:37 UTC
Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.37 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.37. That distribution gives Den Bosch the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Den Bosch win
52.0% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Den Bosch home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Eindhoven away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Den Bosch to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 22% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Den Bosch and 1.37 for FC Eindhoven, a combined 3.37 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.4%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–06.9%
- 2–06.9%
- 1–26.5%
Recent form
Den Bosch
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Helmond Sport · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:45:00.000Z · A vs FC Volendam · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-07T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Jong PSV U21 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitesse · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Eindhoven · 5-2 (W)
FC Eindhoven
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Den Bosch · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs MVV · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Jong AZ · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs SK Beveren · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs PSV Eindhoven · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eerste Divisie table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Den Bosch win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.