De Vliert · Referee M. Perez · Analysis updated 14:31 UTC
Den Bosch vs Vitesse Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.56 for Vitesse, a combined total of 3.23. That distribution gives Den Bosch the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.9% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.56
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Den Bosch home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Den Bosch to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 23% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Den Bosch and 1.56 for Vitesse, a combined 3.23 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 63% and both teams to score at 64%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.3%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–28.0%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–06.6%
Recent form
Den Bosch
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Helmond Sport · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:45:00.000Z · A vs FC Volendam · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-07T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Jong PSV U21 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitesse · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Eindhoven · 5-2 (W)
Vitesse
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Jong PSV U21 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Roda · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FC OSS · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Den Bosch · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Almere City FC · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eerste Divisie table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.