Stade Van Roy · Analysis updated 23:23 UTC
Dender vs Patro Eisden Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.15 expected goals for Dender and 0.93 for Patro Eisden, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives Dender the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dender win
65.4% probability
Expected goals
2.15 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dender home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Patro Eisden away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dender to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 20% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.15 goals for Dender and 0.93 for Patro Eisden, a combined 3.08 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.7%
- 1–09.9%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.2%
- 3–07.7%
Recent form
Dender
- 2026-10-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Standard Liege · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Brugge II · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Hoogstraten · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Patro Eisden · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs KAA Gent II · 1-0 (W)
Patro Eisden
- 2026-10-25T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Liège · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-16T18:30:00.000Z · A vs KVC Westerlo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs KRC Genk II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Roeselare Daisel · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Dender · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Challenger Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beerschot VA | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 21 |
| 2 | Dender | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | AS Eupen | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 15 |
| 4 | Lokeren-Temse | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | Francs Borains | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Sporting Hasselt | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 7 | Excelsior Virton | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Patro Eisden | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 9 |
| 9 | Club Brugge II | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | K. Lierse S.K. | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | KRC Genk II | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | KAA Gent II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | Seraing United | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 14 | Liège | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 5 |
| 15 | RSC Anderlecht II | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dender win, at 65.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.