Dender vs Seraing United Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.08 expected goals for Dender and 1.10 for Seraing United, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives Dender the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Dender win

59.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.08 – 1.10

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Dender home form
9 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Seraing United away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dender to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 21% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.08 goals for Dender and 1.10 for Seraing United, a combined 3.18 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Dender win60%

Draw21%

Seraing United win20%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

40%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

2–19.9%
1–19.5%
2–09.0%
1–08.7%
3–16.8%

Recent form

Dender

2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Hoogstraten · 6-0 (W)
2026-09-20T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Patro Eisden · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs KAA Gent II · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Seraing United · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Liège · 2-1 (W)

Seraing United

2026-10-11T17:15:00.000Z · A vs KAA Gent II · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Knokke · 5-2 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs KRC Genk II · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Hasselt · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Dender · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Challenger Pro League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Beerschot VA	7	6	0	1	12	18
2	Dender	7	6	0	1	9	18
3	AS Eupen	6	5	0	1	8	15
4	Francs Borains	6	4	0	2	2	12
5	Sporting Hasselt	7	4	0	3	-2	12
6	Excelsior Virton	6	3	1	2	5	10
7	Lokeren-Temse	6	3	1	2	2	10
8	K. Lierse S.K.	6	2	2	2	-1	8
9	Club Brugge II	6	2	2	2	-2	8
10	KAA Gent II	6	2	2	2	-2	8
11	KRC Genk II	7	2	1	4	-3	7
12	Patro Eisden	7	2	0	5	-4	6
13	Liège	7	1	2	4	-7	5
14	Seraing United	7	0	2	5	-7	2
15	RSC Anderlecht II	7	0	1	6	-10	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Dender win, at 59.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.