Vejle Stadion · Referee I. Bosca · Analysis updated 15:46 UTC
Denmark U21 vs Belgium U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.96 expected goals for Denmark U21 and 1.00 for Belgium U21, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives Belgium U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.8% probability
Expected goals
0.96 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Denmark U21 home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Belgium U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 33% / 31% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.96 goals for Denmark U21 and 1.00 for Belgium U21, a combined 1.95 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 31% and both teams to score at 39%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–014.2%
- 0–114.2%
- 1–013.5%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–27.1%
Recent form
Denmark U21
- 2026-10-06T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Belgium U21 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Austria U21 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-28T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Belarus U21 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-03-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Wales U21 · 4-0 (W)
- 2025-11-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Belarus U21 · 1-0 (W)
Belgium U21
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.