Vejle Stadion · Referee M. Marcenaro · Analysis updated 07:05 UTC
Denmark U21 vs Wales U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.41 expected goals for Denmark U21 and 0.72 for Wales U21, a combined total of 4.12. That distribution gives Denmark U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 87%, with the draw at 9%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 87% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Denmark U21 win
86.8% probability
Expected goals
3.41 – 0.72
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Denmark U21 home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Wales U21 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Denmark U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 87%, against 87% / 9% / 4% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.41 goals for Denmark U21 and 0.72 for Wales U21, a combined 4.12 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
96%
Double chance 12
91%
Double chance X2
13%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–010.7%
- 2–09.4%
- 4–09.1%
- 3–17.6%
- 2–16.7%
Recent form
Denmark U21
- 2026-10-06T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Belgium U21 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Austria U21 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-28T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Belarus U21 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-03-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Wales U21 · 4-0 (W)
- 2025-11-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Belarus U21 · 1-0 (W)
Wales U21
- 2026-10-06T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Austria U21 · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Belgium U21 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-31T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Denmark U21 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-03-27T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Belarus U21 · 2-0 (W)
- 2025-11-14T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Belarus U21 · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Denmark U21 win, at 86.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 87% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.