Parken Stadium · Referee M. Oliver · Analysis updated 14:46 UTC
Denmark vs Greece Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.75 expected goals for Denmark and 1.28 for Greece, a combined total of 4.03. That distribution gives Denmark the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Denmark win
68.2% probability
Expected goals
2.75 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Denmark home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Greece away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Denmark to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 16% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.75 goals for Denmark and 1.28 for Greece, a combined 4.03 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.6%
- 3–17.9%
- 2–06.7%
- 1–16.2%
- 3–06.1%
Recent form
Denmark
- 2026-10-04T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Wales · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-01T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Portugal · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Wales · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-24T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Norway · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-06-07T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Ukraine · 2-1 (W)
Greece
- 2026-09-27T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Germany · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-24T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Serbia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-07T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Italy · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sweden · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-03-31T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Hungary · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2025-10-12T18:45:00.000Z · Denmark 3-1 Greece (World Cup - Qualification Europe)
- 2025-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · Denmark 3-0 Greece (World Cup - Qualification Europe)
World Cup - Qualification Europe table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Germany | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 15 |
| 2 | Slovakia | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 12 |
| 3 | Northern Ireland | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Luxembourg | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -12 | 0 |
| 1 | Switzerland | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 14 |
| 2 | Kosovo | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 |
| 3 | Slovenia | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -5 | 4 |
| 4 | Sweden | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 2 |
| 1 | Scotland | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 2 | Denmark | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 11 |
| 3 | Greece | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 4 | Belarus | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -13 | 2 |
| 1 | France | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 16 |
| 2 | Ukraine | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 3 | Iceland | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Azerbaijan | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -13 | 1 |
| 1 | Spain | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 16 |
| 2 | Türkiye | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Georgia | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 3 |
| 4 | Bulgaria | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -16 | 3 |
| 1 | Portugal | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 13 |
| 2 | Rep. Of Ireland | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 3 | Hungary | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 4 | Armenia | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -16 | 3 |
| 1 | Netherlands | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 20 |
| 2 | Poland | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 17 |
| 3 | Finland | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 4 | Malta | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -15 | 5 |
| 5 | Lithuania | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
| 1 | Austria | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 19 |
| 2 | Bosnia & Herzegovina | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 17 |
| 3 | Romania | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 13 |
| 4 | Cyprus | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 5 | San Marino | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -37 | 0 |
| 1 | Norway | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 24 |
| 2 | Italy | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | Israel | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 4 | Estonia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 4 |
| 5 | Moldova | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -27 | 1 |
| 1 | Belgium | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 22 | 18 |
| 2 | Wales | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 16 |
| 3 | FYR Macedonia | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 5 | Liechtenstein | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -31 | 0 |
| 1 | England | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 24 |
| 2 | Albania | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 3 | Serbia | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 4 | Latvia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 5 |
| 5 | Andorra | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -13 | 1 |
| 1 | Croatia | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 22 |
| 2 | Czech Republic | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 16 |
| 3 | Faroe Islands | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Montenegro | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 9 |
| 5 | Gibraltar | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -25 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Denmark win, at 68.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.