Parken Stadium · Referee Mykola Balakin, Ukraine · Analysis updated 15:04 UTC
Denmark vs Portugal Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Denmark and 1.42 for Portugal, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Portugal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
71.3% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 1.42
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Denmark home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Portugal to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 29% / 27% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for Denmark and 1.42 for Portugal, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 46% and both teams to score at 50%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 0–111.7%
- 1–28.9%
- 1–08.9%
- 0–28.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.2%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.20 (model 49.9% vs market 42.4%, edge +7.5 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.20 | 42.4% | 49.9% | 2.00 | +7.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.75 | 54.2% | 55.2% | 1.81 | +1.0 |
| Match result | Home | 3.25 | 27.9% | 28.7% | 3.48 | +0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.9% | 73.5% | 1.36 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 26.7% | 26.5% | 3.77 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 2.00 | 45.4% | 44.8% | 2.23 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.30 | 72.9% | 71.3% | 1.40 | -1.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 57.6% | 50.1% | 2.00 | -7.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Denmark
- 2026-10-04T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Wales · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-01T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Portugal · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Wales · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-24T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Norway · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-06-07T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Ukraine · 2-1 (W)
Portugal
- 2026-10-04T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Norway · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-01T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Denmark · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-27T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Norway · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-24T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Wales · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Spain · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-03-23T19:45:00.000Z · Denmark 2-5 Portugal (UEFA Nations League)
- 2025-03-20T19:45:00.000Z · Denmark 1-0 Portugal (UEFA Nations League)
- 2012-06-13T16:00:00.000Z · Denmark 2-3 Portugal (Euro Championship)
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
| 2 | Italy | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Belgium | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Türkiye | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 0 |
| 1 | Netherlands | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 2 | Greece | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 3 | Germany | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 4 | Serbia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 0 |
| 1 | Spain | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 12 |
| 2 | England | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 9 |
| 3 | Croatia | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 3 |
| 4 | Czechia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 0 |
| 1 | Portugal | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 2 | Denmark | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Wales | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Norway | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 1 | Switzerland | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 12 |
| 2 | Slovenia | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Scotland | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 | FYR Macedonia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
| 1 | Northern Ireland | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| 2 | Hungary | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Ukraine | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 4 | Georgia | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| 1 | Austria | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| 2 | Kosovo | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 3 | Rep. Of Ireland | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| 4 | Israel | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 1 | Sweden | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| 2 | Bosnia & Herzegovina | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| 3 | Poland | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 4 | Romania | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
| 1 | Albania | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Belarus | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Finland | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 4 | San Marino | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -15 | 0 |
| 1 | Montenegro | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 2 | Cyprus | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Armenia | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Latvia | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 1 | Slovakia | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| 2 | Faroe Islands | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Moldova | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 4 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| 1 | Iceland | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 8 |
| 2 | Estonia | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Bulgaria | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 | Luxembourg | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 1 | Malta | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 2 | Gibraltar | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 3 | Andorra | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 1 | Azerbaijan | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 2 | Lithuania | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Liechtenstein | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.